Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 201.577991 247.060171 304.175592 382.637831 490.030662 6.356389e+02 8.549504e+02
2025-01-05 147.695107 198.197006 270.197858 385.101925 573.900423 8.930138e+02 1.529941e+03
2025-01-12 121.529910 173.780381 255.424000 401.601325 680.905023 1.257316e+03 2.794828e+03
2025-01-19 100.551585 150.105096 232.609350 393.169477 737.647480 1.576931e+03 4.519018e+03
2025-01-26 92.858659 145.038174 238.033357 436.647620 925.102873 2.396408e+03 1.012952e+04
2025-02-02 85.822733 139.188137 239.942519 473.504824 1125.912262 3.567238e+03 2.482174e+04
2025-02-09 79.335084 132.805670 238.863740 503.224377 1334.886299 5.222870e+03 7.097536e+04
2025-02-16 72.967994 125.350154 233.586536 520.628705 1525.223391 7.373676e+03 2.514299e+05
2025-02-23 67.324978 118.274516 227.388008 533.330669 1716.842740 1.035952e+04 1.587144e+06
2025-03-02 60.907149 108.615928 213.292075 518.296909 1785.909186 1.283384e+04 1.868246e+07
2025-03-09 55.489517 100.274195 200.674669 503.575983 1849.466723 1.586056e+04 NaN
2025-03-16 50.463414 92.119532 187.066344 481.388087 1860.985697 1.858674e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 49.617849 93.058558 196.598512 542.489043 2434.103566 4.034695e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 46.369535 88.249577 190.544090 546.952566 2682.567044 6.375646e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 44.268329 85.751260 190.138461 573.334525 3158.692527 1.316760e+05 NaN
2025-04-13 41.089806 80.347780 180.730967 559.914994 3297.081120 2.018986e+05 NaN
2025-04-20 40.662566 81.377089 189.708167 629.717223 4435.571536 1.121699e+06 NaN
2025-04-27 39.816899 81.269326 195.401478 689.772037 5772.134483 2.169155e+07 NaN
2025-05-04 38.677576 80.272486 198.202587 738.764792 7280.554228 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 37.184535 78.182781 197.127086 767.685024 8706.533044 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 35.661592 75.834072 194.760633 788.896364 10223.022220 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 33.512194 71.608071 185.367322 763.800690 10513.053811 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 31.562104 67.738536 176.624407 739.347465 10772.844542 NaN NaN